Best bet Carlos Alcaraz chases a dream against all-bets-off Novak Djokovic

Stan Wawrinka voiced it out loud what a lot of other players speak quietly. Asked if he felt he could beat Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon ahead of their third-round clash, the Swiss, a three-time Grand Slam champion who has sent the Serb packing from the three other Slams, said, “I don’t really stand a chance”.

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In the last five years and 34 matches that Djokovic has played at the All England Club, no one really has. Now a 20-year-old Spanish greenhorn on grass comes along believing, and not shying away from announcing it to the world, that he can defeat a 36-year-old seven-time Wimbledon champion going for his fifth straight title in the final on Sunday.

“It's going to be really, really difficult. But, you know, I will fight. That’s myself,” Carlos Alcaraz said after blowing away Daniil Medvedev in the semi-final. “I will believe in myself. I will believe that I can beat him here.”

That’s a start. Even though the end result might yet go the other way.

Record beckons

It would take a brave man to bet against Djokovic tying Roger Federer’s record of eight Wimbledon titles. To bet against Djokovic stretching his lead in the all-time Slam list to 24 and his hold on the majors this year. To bet against Djokovic, who has not been touched on Centre Court since 2013, to be trumped in 2023.

But Alcaraz is a brave player. With an audacious game to boot. One that handed his breakthrough Slam crown on the hard courts of New York at 19 last year and a rich spread of 41 wins sprinkled with just four defeats across hard and clay courts this year. A heady mixture of power and touch was yet to blend on the green, however, as he exited from the second and fourth rounds of his previous Wimbledon appearances.

Not for nothing, though, is Alcaraz bookmarked for greatness and compared to a fellow special Spaniard. Grass his least preferred surface too; Rafael Nadal took three cracks to make his first Wimbledon final in 2006. Alcaraz did not need more, showcasing his adaptability and versatility skills on the surface with quick movement of the feet and rich variety of the game. Alcaraz’s rise has been rapid. He is an equally fast learner.

“I don't think many people expected him to play so well (on grass), because his game is basically built and constructed and developed for clay mostly or slower hard courts," Djokovic said. “But he's been incredibly successful in adapting to the surfaces and demands and challenges of opponents on a given day.”

Come Sunday, Alcaraz will have to summon all those traits against an opponent he reckons has "no weakness”. The Spaniard will have to let his serve do a lot of the talking and his famed forehand a lot of the firing. Over and above that, find a way to get past the Djokovic serve. The 36-year-old has lost only three service games in his six matches so far, saving all but three of the 19 break points. Even if someone were to find an opening on the Serb’s first strike, it would take something special to crack it.

The mind game

Yet more than tactics and game, it is Alcaraz's mind that would do well to free up. Easier said than done, as his cramp-hit four-set French Open semi-final defeat to Djokovic after levelling things up in the second set showed. That meeting, arriving after a long wait of over a year since their first encounter, was built up as the battle of the season. The 20-year-old sure felt it, admitting later the cramp was more due to a nervy mind than a hampered body.

It has taken a little over a month for them to cross paths again. Alcaraz promises to “do something different” in London, with the help of his psychologist, to turn up at Centre Court with a calmer mind.

“I’ll try to pull out all nerves, try to enjoy that moment,” he said. “It’s going to be different for me... I think I’ll be better on Sunday.”

Better than the best at Wimbledon since 2018? We'll see.

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