Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Kentucky Derby Bear Bytes
The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, which means Saturday will be an exciting day for fans who love horses and for bettors looking for a fun way to wager a few bucks on the big race.
This is the first leg of the Triple Crown and has a post time set for 6:57 p.m. ET Saturday.
But before the big race, let's have a little fun with my "Bear Bytes."
These little "bytes," as I call them, are just nuggets that will give you some entertaining talking points to pull from as you watch the Kentucky Derby festivities with friends and family.
Here are the biggest ones that stuck out to me while doing my research:
— Eleven of the last 12 Kentucky Derby favorites have finished in the money. The last Derby favorite to finish outside the top three was Improbable in 2019 (fourth). Of the 11 that finished in the money, six won (the last being Justify in 2018), three finished second and two finished third — including the 2023 favorite Angel of Empire.
— The only time Todd Pletcher had the Derby favorite was in 2017 when Always Dreaming won the Derby at nearly 5-1.
— Think it’s as easy as the favorite and the second choice to run first and second? Only twice in the last 45 years has the Derby produced a result where the favorite won and the second choice ran second. Those two instances were in 2016, when favorite Nyquist won and the No. 2 choice Exaggerator was second, and in 2004, when favored Smarty Jones won and the No. 2 choice Lion Heart was second.
— The second betting choice in the Derby hasn’t won since Super Saver in 2010 and the fourth choice hasn’t won since Grindstone in 1996.
— Since Alysheba won in 1987, only one horse won from post 1, 2 or 3 and that was Real Quiet in 1998 from the third post. In 2022, Epicenter came close, finishing second. Since Ferdinand won from the rail in 1986, only two horses — Risen Star in 1988 and Lookin at Lee in 2017 — managed a top-three finish, and only three others managed to finish fourth.
— Nyquist (2017) and Street Sense (2007) are the only Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners to win the Kentucky Derby.
— Fierceness will likely be the eighth Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to be favored in the Derby. Unbridled’s Song and Arazi are the only two of the previous seven BC Juvenile winners to go favored in the Derby that finished off the board. Last year, Todd Pletcher and Mike Repole were forced to scratch 2022 BC Juvenile winner and 2023 Derby favorite Forte.
— Two of the four longest Derby winners in history have come since 2019 — Country House and Rich Strike. Last year produced another price horse, as Mage won at 15-1.
— In the last five runnings of the Derby, six of the 15 horses to finish first, second or third were at least 14-1 and four were at least 27-1.
— Steve Asmussen is winless from his 25 Derby starters. That’s the most Derby starters for a trainer without a win in the Derby. He has five "In the Money" finishes — Curlin (third in 2007), Nehro (second in 2011), Gun Runner (third in 2016), Lookin At Lee (second in 2017) and Epicenter (second in 2022).
— Since Audible finished third in 2018, Todd Pletcher has started 12 horses in the Derby. None finished better than fifth and nine of the 12 were 10th or worse. The five which were top-five betting choices finished seventh, 14th, fifth, eighth and 13th.
— Bill Mott has won two Triple Crown races. They were with 65-1 shot Country House in the 2019 Kentucky Derby and 13-1 shot Drosselmeyer in the 2010 Belmont Stakes. He also has a runner-up finish in the Belmont with 55-1-shot Vision and Verse. He starts Resilience, who is 20-1 on the ML and will break from PP 19.
— In the last 11 years, at least two of the top-three betting choices have finished in the trifecta seven times.
— Horses that have a win or second place finish at Churchill Downs: 3 Mystic Dan, 4 Catching Freedom, 6 Just Steel, 7 Honor Marie, 12 Track Phantom, 13 West Saratoga, 18 Stronghold and 19 Resilience.
— D. Wayne Lukas hasn’t seen any of his last ten Derby starters finish better than sixth. His last Derby starter to hit the board was Proud Citizen, who was runner-up to War Emblem in 2002.
— Since finishing second with his first Derby starter Tejano Run in 1995, none of Ken McPeek’s last eight Derby starters have finished better than fifth, and that includes 2002 favorite Harlan’s Holiday, who finished seventh.
— Since 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed last won from PP No. 2, there have been 11 top-five betting choices to break from PP two. They have finished 10th, third, third, 11th, 10th, eighth, 13th, 10th, third, last and third. In that span, five were top-two choices, as Sierra Leone will be. One of which was Curlin, who was one of the best horses of his generation, and even he couldn’t overcome the inside draw on the first Saturday in May.
Top-two betting choice — Broke From PP2 since 1978
2013
Revolutionary: 3rd
2017
Curlin: 3rd
1992
Technology: 10th
1985
Chief’s Crown: 3rd
1981
Golden Derby: Last
— Historically, the Wood Memorial — a key prep for the Kentucky Derby — has not produced a top-2 finisher in the Derby since 2003 when Empire Maker finished second to Funny Cide, both of whom ran in the Wood.
— Todd Pletcher won his second Kentucky Derby in 2017. However, only eight of Pletcher’s 64 Derby starters have posted a top-three finish, the last of those being Audible in 2018. Eleven of his 12 starters since have finished seventh or worse, including last year’s second choice Tapit Trice (seventh). Pletcher will send the favorite Fierceness to post on Saturday.
— Of Todd Pletcher’s 64 starters, 15 of them have (excluding multiple horse entries) been among the top four betting choices in the Derby. Of Pletcher’s 15 horses to be sent off as a top-four wagering choice, only five have finished better than seventh.
Todd Pletcher Derby Horses in Top Four Wagering Choices: *
2023
Horse: Tapit Trice (Luis Saez)
Odds: 4.5, Choice: 2, Finish: 7
2021
Horse: Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
Odds: 10, Choice: 4, Finish: 8
2018
Horse: Audible (Javier Castellano)
Odds: 7, Choice: 4, Finish: 8
2017
Horse: Always Dreaming (John Velazquez)
Odds: 4.7, Choice: 1, Finish: 1
2015
Horse: Carpe Diem (John Velazquez)
Odds: 7.7, Choice: 3, Finish: 10
2014
Horse: Danza (Joe Bravo)
Odds: 8.7, Choice: 3, Finish: 3
2013
Horse: Revolutionary (Calvin Borel)
Odds: 6.4, Choice: 2, Finish: 3
2013
Horse: Verrazano (John Velazquez)
Odds: 8.7, Choice: 4, Finish: 14
2012
Horse: Gemologist (Javier Castellano)
Odds: 8.6, Choice: 3, Finish: 16
2010
Horse: Super Saver (Calvin Borel)
Odds: 8, Choice: 2, Finish: 1
2010
Horse: Devil May Care (John Velazquez)
Odds: 10.9, Choice: 4, Finish: 10
2009
Horse: Dunkirk (Edgar Prado)
Odds: 5.2, Choice: 2, Finish: 11
2007
Horse: Scat Daddy (Edgar Prado)
Odds: 7.2, Choice: 3, Finish: 18
2005
Horse: Bandini (John Velazquez)
Odds: 6.8 Choice: 3, Finish: 19
2001
Horse: Balto Star (Mark Guidry)
Odds: 8.3, Choice: 4, Finish: 14
* excludes horses part of an entry
— Chad Brown has started seven horses in the Derby, with the best finish coming from runner-up Good Magic in 2018. Zandon, who finished third as the third choice in 2022, is the only one of Brown’s seven runners that was better than fifth choice.
— Joel Rosario has had 12 Derby mounts. Of the 11 that finished the race, eight finished fifth or better, including 2013 winner Orb. The six horses Rosario has ridden that were sent off as a top-five betting choice finished first (Orb, favorite in 2013), second (Epicenter second as the favorite in 2022), fourth (Frosted as fifth choice in 2015), Creative Cause (fifth as fourth choice in 2012), Game Winner (fifth as the fourth choice in 2019) and Rock Your World (16th as the second choice in 2021). So, if Rosario is on a horse that has a chance on paper, he usually gives it a great go in the race.
— Irad Ortiz Jr. is making his fifth Kentucky Derby mount. His mounts have finished 14th, 11th and seventh in 2014, 2016 and 2018 aboard longshots My Man Sam, Uncle Sigh and Hofburg. He also rose Derby favorite Improbable to a fourth-place finish in 2019.
— John Velazquez has made 25 Kentucky Derby mounts. Thirteen of the 25 have been for trainer Todd Pletcher, the last of which was Vino Rosso, who finished ninth in 2018. Only two of the 13 finished in the money: Always Dreaming, who won in 2017 as the favorite, and 2001 runner-up Invisible Ink, who was dismissed at 55-1. Nine of the 13 finished ninth or worse despite being a top-five betting choice.
— Jose Ortiz is making his ninth Derby mount. His mount has finished in the superfecta three of the last five years, including on 35-1 shot Simplification two years ago.
— Luis Saez has had 10 career Derby mounts. Only one has finished better than seventh (favored Essential Quality third in 2021). Saez also rode Maximum Security, who crossed the finish line first as the second choice in 2019, but was disqualified to 17th after the race.
— Flavien Prat has had six mounts in the Derby. All but favored Angel of Empire last year have either run to or outrun their odds, as Solomini finished 10th in 2018 as the 17th choice (63-1) and Battle of Midway finished third as the 15th choice in 2017 (40-1). In 2021, Hot Rod Charlie was second as the third choice and in 2022, Zandon was third as the third choice. Prat also won the Derby in 2019 on 65-1 shot Country House, who was the 18th choice in the race. Five of his six mounts have hit the board. He’ll be on the popular closer Catching Freedom Saturday.
— Tyler Gaffalione has certainly had some eventful Derby mounts. In 2017, he rode the one-eyed horse, Patch, from the far outside post. In 2019, he was on War of Will, who was nearly knocked to the ground by Maximum Security, who was later disqualified, and in 2020, he finished last on South Bend. Oh — he also rode future Breeders’ Cup Classic winner White Abarrio to a 16th-place finish in 2022. None of his six mounts have finished better than seventh but none were better than sixth choice in the race.
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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