Super Bowl LVIII Receiving Props Featuring 49ers TE George Kittle, Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco
It's Super Bowl LVIII week, so it's time to start cranking out the gambling content. The easy part, which hasn't been written yet, is the prediction. I've seen all the games of both teams and had my pick locked in since the conclusion of the conference championships. Whether it wins or not is a different story. However, even if your pick to win the Big Game loses, there's still money to be made on player props. Below are my four favorite …
Super Bowl LVIII Receiving Props
- The odds used are the best available at the time of writing.
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle OVER 20.5 longest reception (-112) at FanDuel Sportsbook
I went Under Kittle’s 4.5-reception prop in the NFC title game because he’s more of a big-play threat and less of a possession receiver. Well, I’m betting on the 1st part of that logic for Kittle's Super Bowl LVIII reception prop. Kittle’s longest reception has been at least 24 yards in 12 of his 18 games during the regular season and playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle reacts after a play vs. the Detroit Lions of the NFC Championship at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports)
This includes a 32-yard catch vs. the Packers in the divisional round and a 28-yard reception vs. the Lions in the NFC championship. Kittle had a 34-yard catch against the Chiefs in Week 7 last season. He finished that game with 6 receptions for 98 yards and 1 TD.
Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco UNDER 17.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at DraftKings Sportsbook
I cashed an Under 16.5 receiving yards bet for Pacheco in last year’s Super Bowl. Pacheco didn’t have a catch in Super Bowl LVII. He has 14 or fewer receiving yards in five of his six career playoff games.
Pacheco has just nine career games with 18 or more receiving yards in the regular season. In the 2024 AFC Championship, Pacheco caught 4 balls for 14 yards. He didn’t catch any passes against the Niners in Week 7 last season.
Baltimore Ravens S Kyle Hamilton lights up Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco after a catch during the 2024 AFC Championship game at M&T Bank Stadium in Maryland. (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
Kansas City has limited its offensive usage to Travis Kelce, rookie WR Rashee Rice, and Pacheco. With that in mind, San Francisco’s defense will be watching for Pacheco running routes out of the backfield.
The 49ers held Detroit Lions RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to a combined 5 receptions for 31 yards in the NFC title game. Green Bay Packers RBs Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson caught 4 passes for 19 receiving yards vs. San Francisco in the NFC divisional round.
Niners WR Jauan Jennings UNDER 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Jennings does a good job stepping up for Samuel when he’s out with an injury. But, 49ers WR Deebo Samuel is playing in the Super Bowl, so Jennings’ usage should shrink Sunday. He caught 2+ balls in only seven of his 15 regular season and playoff games in 2023-24. Samuel got hurt early in two of those games and missed another.
Essentially, there are just too many mouths to feed in San Francisco’s offense and Jennings ain’t one of them. Put yourself in 49ers QB Brock Purdy’s shoes. If you’re dropping back to pass in the biggest game of your life, whose direction are you looking in 1st? Deebo, Kittle, Niners WR Brandon Aiyuk, then 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey.
Finally, Kansas City’s defense was 2nd in both sacks and pressure rate during the regular season. I.e. Purdy won’t have enough time to go through his progressions and settle on his 4th option, which Jennings figures to be for most of his Super Bowl snaps.
Kansas City Chiefs TE Noah Gray OVER 11.5 Receiving Yards (-120) at FanDuel
Gray averaged 17.9 receiving yards per game during the regular season. In his 19 games this season with QB Patrick Mahomes under center, Gray has gone Over 13.5 receiving yards in 12 games, including the wild card and divisional rounds. Gray caught 2 passes last week for just 8 yards, but he had 5 targets. That’s the most Gray has been targeted in a game since Week 1, which Kelce missed.
His Over 1.5-reception prop is juiced higher at Pinnacle Sportsbook than the squarer legal U.S. shops. Gray averaged a career-high 10.9 yards per catch during the regular season. Meaning, if Gray catches two passes, it’s likely he’ll go Over 11.5 receiving yards. Gray’s longest reception prop is 8.5 yards with the Over juiced to -125.
Kansas City Chiefs TE Noah Gray gets tackled by Baltimore Ravens LB Roquan Smith after a catch in the AFC title game at M&T Bank Stadium. (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
KC plays the 4th-highest rate of 11 personnel this season (two tight-end packages) and has a weaker WR corp. The Chiefs might use more "11" packages to protect their weak outside tackles against San Francisco pass rushers Chase Young and Nick Bosa. More snaps is the first and most important part of cashing the Over for anything.
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