To put shooters' performance in perspective, must demystify rankings

India’s performance in the air rifle and air pistol events has been disappointing. To understand what went wrong, we need to look at four things: rankings, composition and preparation of the core team, the mental aspect and, by extension, dealing with the pressure of the Olympics.

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Being world No. 1 and world No. 2 was amazing for shooting in India going into the Olympics. It got people talking about 10m air pistol world No. 1s such as Abhishek Verma and Yashaswini Deswal, Elavenil Valarivan (world No. 1 in women’s 10m air rifle) and Saurabh Chaudhary whose multiple medals in the 10m air pistol over the past few years have defied belief that he is 19.

But to put the Olympics’ performance in perspective, we must demystify the rankings. From January 2021, world rankings started on a clean slate, meaning irrespective of whether you were an Olympic winner or a rookie, you were on zero. In that situation, New Delhi hosted the first World Cup (pistol/rifle) in March. A number of countries including powerhouses China and South Korea skipped that. As has been discussed in this paper, no one knew how China were preparing. Two days into the shooting competition, China (5 medals with one gold) have again showed the world why they are the best.

The scores Indians achieved in the World Cup were good and our medal winners in New Delhi became world No. 1s and No. 2s. But the level and pressure of competition were far from what they experienced at the Olympics. So, if we went merely by world rankings, we were always running the risk of unrealistic expectations.

Now, on to the core squad. Let me clarify that the Indian shooting federations have been transparent and fair in their selection. But in a year of no competitions, one where there was no clear idea of how the shooters were training, maybe we should not have firmed up the core squad nearly a year before the Games. We could have held on to the team selection till May 2021 but chose not to. Maybe, India paid a price for sticking to procedure and evaluating shooters based on their performance in 2018 and 2019 when they got the Olympic quota places.

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A deliberate digression here. In the 2012 Olympics, I represented India in the men’s 50m rifle prone even though the quota was bagged by someone else. That happened because in the run-up to the London Games, I had a good run of form and garnered more points than the shooter who had sealed the quota place. Given that bonus points are added to your tally for bagging a quota place and winning medals in World Cups, it is difficult for a shooter to overtake one who has earned the quota. But not impossible.

So, in hindsight --- always a wonderful thing --- choosing the core squad that early could have been avoided because we now have a bunch of shooters separated by decimal points in categories like women’s air rifle. Some shooters who had bagged the quota place had a sharp dip in form in 2020 but held on to their berths--- fairly -- because of the bonus points.

None of that justifies some of the scores which would have not been in the top 20 of our national championships. Going into the Olympics, the team did okay in the European championships, where India took part as guests, followed by the ordinary results in the World Cup in Croatia one month prior to the Games. That would or should have tempered our expectations.

And that brings me to the mental aspect. For two months, the team largely shut itself and trained in Croatia. Maybe they bonded well --- for rare is it that Indian shooters train together --- and had great technical sessions but were they ready in the mind? Especially because in continuation of a trend from 2018, 2019, not all shooters had personal coaches in Croatia. I am not advocating shooters taking personal coaches to the Games or camps but often, interaction between the federation-appointed coaches and the personal coach is shunned. Again, I think for the sake of the player, the federations can be more inclusive. I am also surprised that a national coach like Jaspal Rana and foreign coach Pavel Smirnov, among others, did not travel to Tokyo.

These young men and women have shown us they can deal with the pressure of World Cups and bagging quota places, that is why 15 have gone to Tokyo. But handling the pressure of the Olympics is different. What almost worked for me was telling myself that I am alone in this and so I need to be alert in the present.

That said, it is not all doom and gloom. Saurabh and Manu Bhaker won four mixed gold medals in four World Cups in 2019 when the best took part. So, watch out for them in the mixed. The way Saurabh recovered and became the first Indian to lead the qualification round was superb. And Manu shooting 44 shots in 37 minutes to nearly make the final showed the stuff she is made of. They have been jolted, yes, but maybe they needed this shock to the system they needed. Early next week, we could all be celebrating.

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